Demographic Shift of Rural and Non-rural Areas in Bulgaria

IVANOV, Bozhidar (bozidar_ivanov@yahoo.co.uk) 

Bozhidar Ivanov is an associate professor at the Institute of Agrarian Economics at the Agricultural Academy, where he has been working since mid-2005. As of the end of 2018, he was appointed as a head of the Institute of Agricultural Economics - Sofia. Since the beginning of 2013, he participated in founding the Center for Agri-Policy Analysis - CAPA at the IAE and as a leader of the research team. He is author of over 80 individual and collective publications in Bulgaria and abroad. He has led and participated in over 30 projects and tasks dedicated to the field of agricultural economics, policy analysis and impact, research and monitoring of commodity markets, sustainability, competitiveness, rural areas. He has specialized in various programs abroad and for the last few years has focused his research interests on the implementation, development and upgrading of methodological tools in the field of agricultural economics. 

Research Overview 

This analysis was made through a comparative study of important indicators describing the demographics in rural and non-rural areas. Rural areas in Bulgaria are defined and delineated for the purpose of Rural Development Program implementation. According to the national definition, rural areas are defined at the municipal level (LAU 2) and include the territory of 231 municipalities in which the largest settlement has a population of up to 30,000 people. The definition and outline of the rural areas is based only on a criteria and it is number of population. In accordance with this definition, rural areas occupy 81% of the territory and 39% of the population of Bulgaria. The wide range of rural areas with such a common definition shows there is significant differentiation between the areas defined as rural, which makes it difficult to draw general conclusions and to identify specificities ensuing of more concrete and particular characteristics. 

The goal of the paper is to analyze the changes in demographic in rural and non-rural areas, evinced in the period 2007-2019 and based on an evaluation to delineate outlook for desired future using an expertise Delphi approach. The analysis is done applying descriptive analysis and Regional Factor Shift Analysis (RFSA), designated to evaluate demographic shifts between rural and non-rural areas and between particular municipalities among those groups itself. The RFSA is analytical tool built on Shift Share Analysis (SSA) designed to determine the contribution of certain components for observed changes in studied regional economies. The study is inspired by a project –“The Sustainable Hub to Engage into Rural Policies with Actors (SHERPA)” funded by Horizon 2020 of EU, where IAE is a partner. 

(Keywords: demography, rural and non-rural areas, socio-economic development, convergance, technological advance, opportunities.)